New England Patriots @ New York Jets
1:00 pm- Sunday, September 20th
Giants Stadium- East Rutherford, NJ
I can’t see how Jets fans could be any happier with the way their team played in last Sunday’s 24-7 win vs. Houston. Right from the get-go, the Jets new look defense swarmed the field with intimidating hit after intimidating hit, limiting one of last year’s most potent offenses to a measly 183 total yards. The run defense, looking a lot like the Jets defense from the first half of the 2008 season, allowed only 38 yards on the ground and held Steve Slaton, the AFC’s second leading rusher in 2008, to 17 yards on 9 carries. What’s probably most impressive about the Jets defensive dominance from week 1 is the fact that they did it without two of their best players in Shaun Ellis (1 week suspension) and Calvin Pace (4 game suspension).
The offense, led by rookie QB Mark Sanchez, was surprisingly sharp and in tune for week 1, putting up a total of 462 yards. Sanchez spread out a majority of his 272 passing yards to WR’s Jerricho Cotchery (6 catches, 90 yards) and Chansi Stuckey (4 catches, 64 yards, TD), and TE Dustin Keller (4 catches, 94 yards). Thomas Jones, the AFC’s leading rusher in 2008, ran for 107 of the Jets’ 190 total rushing yards. A fourth quarter Texans’ interception/fumble recovery returned for a touchdown was the lone down point for an otherwise solid offensive opening for the Jets.
On the other hand, the New England Patriots found themselves having to rally late in the fourth quarter on Monday night to sneak out a 25-24 victory vs. Buffalo in front of a sold out crowd at Gillette Stadium. Tom Brady made his long awaited return from a knee injury that kept him sidelined since last season’s opener vs. Kansas City. Whether it was due to a conservative approach by the New England coaches or just Brady shaking off the rust and getting re-acclimated to an NFL game atmosphere, the Patriots lacked a methodical flow to their offense, often having drives stalled on 3rd and 4th down conversions inside their opponent’s territory. The Patriots were outplayed by an inferior Bills team for a majority of the first three quarters, but when it came down to it, Tom Brady proved he’s still got it. Trailing 24-13 late in the 4th quarter, Brady drove his team down the field and hit TE Benjamin Watson down the middle for an 18-yard score. After Buffalo’s Leodis McKelvin coughed up the ensuing kick off, Brady needed only three plays to connect with Watson again for the go-ahead touchdown. For much of the game, the Patriots didn’t quite resemble the Patriots we’ve come to know over the past few years, but they got lucky late and snuck out with a win.
This week’s match up between the Patriots and Jets marks the 100th time that the two teams will face off, with the Patriots leading the all-time series 49-48-1. It also marks the first time that Jets new head coach Rex Ryan will face off with Patriots future Hall of Fame coach Bill Belichick. Ryan made headlines back in June when he told reporters, “I never came here to kiss Bill Belichick’s, you know, rings.” Well come Sunday, we’ll get a taste of what Ryan was talking about and see what he can bring to this long-time rivalry. Here’s a breakdown of this Sunday’s match up:
OFFENSE:
THE JETS:
The Jets should be able to have a solid game on the ground on Sunday. I think they have one of the top five offensive lines in the NFL and the Patriots defensive line didn’t impress me much against either the run or pass in week 1. Granted they had 4 sacks, but it was against a Bills team that starts two rookies on their offensive line, which might be the worst in all of football. I think we’ll see a healthy dose of Thomas Jones and Leon Washington, and rookie Shonn Greene could make his NFL debut in this game as well.
What impressed me most about Mark Sanchez in week 1 was his pocket awareness and mobility in breaking the pocket to buy time to find a receiver downfield- qualities that will help him in this match up. I already mentioned how good I feel the offensive line is, so expect Sanchez to have time to throw vs. the Patriots. If he avoids the big turnover, he will keep the Jets in this game throughout. The loss of Jerod Meyo to an MCL injury should mean big things for Dustin Keller, who will be a top target in this game. And with the success the Bills had against the Pats with screen plays, expect Leon Washington to be utilized heavily in the passing game.
THE PATRIOTS:
Tom Brady took a while to get going in week 1, but when all was said and done, he looked pretty good and he’s only going to get better this week. Randy Moss was superb vs. the Bills, catching 12 balls for 141 yards. He had the secondary completely confused on several routes, often catching passes 3 yards apart from a single Bills defender. Expect Moss and Wes Welker (12 catches, 93 yards in week 1) to each approach the 100 yard receiving mark again vs. the Jets. TE’s Ben Watson and Chris Baker will be key red-zone targets for Brady when the match up is right and Kevin Faulk will be a weapon out of the backfield on third-downs.
Unless they get out to an early lead, I don’t expect the Patriots to have much success on the ground vs. the Jets defense. Their offensive line is good, but Kris Jenkins will be too much for them to handle up the middle and I can’t see either Fred Taylor or Laurence Maroney having much better luck than Steve Slaton did in week 1. The Patriots as a team rushed for 73 yards on 23 carries vs. a solid, but not spectacular, Bills defense in their opening game.
PASSING EDGE: PATRIOTS
RUSHING EDGE: JETS
OVERALL OFFENSE: EDGE PATRIOTS
DEFENSE:
THE JETS:
As I just mentioned, the Jets defense should do a good job of slowing down the Patriots RB’s. Kris Jenkins will get defensive linemate Shaun Ellis back from suspension, and along with LB’s Bart Scott and David Harris, will have a huge impact in stopping Maroney and Taylor from gaining significant yards on the ground. The biggest threat at RB for the Patriots is Kevin Faulk, who will see plenty of action in the short passing game, particularly on third-downs.
Unlike the Bills, the Jets cornerbacks will NOT give Randy Moss 10 yards of cushion at the line of scrimmage and will play a lot of man to man coverage vs. the Pats. Darrelle Revis will be assigned to cover Randy Moss and with help deep from Kherry Rhodes, the two could have success in limiting the effect Moss has in this game. As he loves to do, Rex Ryan will use an array of blitz packages and schemes all game long.
THE PATRIOTS:
The Patriots will have to find a way to make up for the loss of Jerod Meyo. They allowed far too many points vs. the Bills after Meyo left the game last week, however limited Buffalo to only 276 yards overall. They had those 4 sacks and seemed to get more pressure in the backfield as the game went on. The Bills did average 5 yards per carry however, so the Patriots are really going to have to dig in to the stop the Jets running game.
The Pats are going to be out for blood against an inexperienced Sanchez, so you can expect plenty of blitzing from them as well. The secondary should be able to prevent the big play and keep up with deep threat WR’s Chansi Stuckey and David Clowney. They will have to remain focused on stopping WR Jerricho Cotchery and TE Dustin Keller, who Sanchez will often look to as possession receivers. As mentioned earlier, after the success that Bills RB Fred Jackson had catching passes out of the backfield (5 receptions, 83 yards), New England better be ready for Leon Washington. The Patriots might have a lot of new faces on defense, but they’re still plenty talented and will only get better as they get more comfortable as a unit. I expect a much better effort from them vs. the Jets.
PASS DEFENSE EDGE: EVEN
RUSH DEFENSE EDGE: JETS
OVERALL EDGE: JETS
SPECIAL TEAMS:
Jim Leonhard and Leon Washington appeared to be sharing punt return duties in week 1 and both had decent returns. The Jets finally found a reliable punter in Steve Weatherford, who averaged 41 yards per punt. Jay Feely connected on his loan field goal attempt of 24 yards.
The Patriots coverage team forced and recovered the fumble that set up Brady’s winning drive in the fourth quarter vs. the Bills. Stephen Gostkowski went 2 for 3 in field goal attempts, but has been a perfect 7 for 7 against the Jets in their previous match ups.
EDGE: EVEN
COACHING/INTANGIBLES:
The Jets had excellent game plans on both offense and defense in game 1. They’re playing at home and with a new culture influenced by Rex Ryan, you know that every player in that locker room possesses the mentality that they can not only play with the Patriots, but that they can beat them. The Jets crowd is going to be electric and could spark the team if they’re in a close game late.
The Patriots have Bill Belichik and Tom Brady, is there really anything else to say? Their track records speak for themselves. Both have had the Jets number for years now, having won 11 out of the last 13 contests, including 8 straight at the Meadowlands.
EDGE: PATRIOTS
BOTTOM LINE:
I think this game is going to come down to the wire and be a very close battle throughout. If the Jets get up early, the Patriots will come back behind Brady, but if the Patriots get out to an early lead, I can see the Jets struggling to come back behind their rookie QB. The Jets have to manage the game on offense and avoid turning the ball over, while the defense must adjust to whatever Belichik and the Patriots throw at them. The Patriots have to avoid the passive play they showed in week 1 and resemble the caliber of play we all know they’re capable of. A late field goal wins this one and I’m going out on a limb:
JETS 26 PATRIOTS 24
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