Now that 2010 is here, the fantasy baseball season is right around the corner. Your Mother’s Mustache will be previewing each position in preparation for your draft day. All rankings are based on a points system which values overall player productivity, including WHIP (walks + hits/innings pitched) and strikeout to walk ratio. Because if you’re still playing in a roto league, you probably also have a “Members Only” jacket hanging in your closet.
1. Tim Lincecum (SF)-The Freak followed up his Cy Young Award winning 2008 season with even better numbers in ‘09, pitching to a 1.05 WHIP and striking out over 10 batters every 9 innings. After winning his second straight Cy Young Award at the age of 25, it’s safe to say that Lincecum is a generational talent. 225 innings a year may be a large workload for his small frame, but it’s nothing a little sweet, sweet cheebah can’t cure.
2. Roy Halladay (PHI)-Remember the kind of numbers CC Sabathia put up when he moved from the American League to the National League for half a season in 2007? Well Halladay’s move to a National League contender all but guarantees him 20 wins and 200 strikeouts this year. He is the only pitcher in the NL who can end Lincecum’s streak of Cy Youngs.
3. Zack Greinke (KC)-It’s tough investing an early round pick in a head case, but Zack Greinke’s combination of control and stuff makes him a number 1 starter in fantasy this season. Despite playing for a lowly Royals squad that provides very little run support, Greinke managed to put up 16 wins last year. He is one of the safest bets for strikeouts and a low WHIP at his position, even if he does collect his own urine in pickle jars.
4. Felix Hernandex (SEA)- Baseball’s version of “The King” turns only 23 this year, making last season’s accomplishments even more impressive. His 29 quality starts (6 innings pitched, 3 earned runs or fewer) was tops in the majors, and he posted the best WHIP and strikeout numbers of his career. With an improved defense in Seattle this season, Hernandez will have a chance to reach the 20 win plateau and once again compete for the AL Cy Young Award.
5. Justin Verlander (DET)- Verlander bounced back from a down year in ‘08 by striking out 269 batters last season, the most in the majors. Now the only thing left to do is change his last name to “Highlander”. It’s only the best movie ever made.
6. Jon Lester (BOS)-Lester got off to a slow start last season, and had a 5.63 ERA through the first two months. But he went on a tear in June and never looked back, posting a career high 225 strikeouts over 200 innings. His miserable start makes his 3.41 ERA at the end of the season even more impressive. This could be the year Lester supplants Josh Beckett as the ace of Boston’s staff.
7. Dan Haren (ARI)-If we were only counting the first half of the season, Haren may very well be the top pitcher on this list. In whats become an alarming trend, Haren disappeared in July for the 4th straight year after posting a 2.01 ERA and 0.80 WHIP through the first 3 months. If you take Haren in your upcoming draft, try to trade him before the All Star break.
8. CC Sabathia (NYY)-C.C. (Cheeseburger Cheeseburger) Sabathia’s numbers came back to Earth after his return to the AL last season, and he failed to eclipse the 200 strikeout mark for the first time in 3 years. He’s still a workhorse, and playing for the World Series champs will give him a good chance to match his 19 wins in ‘09.
9. Josh Beckett (BOS)- Beckett may not be the 9th best pitcher in fantasy, but he’s playing for a contract this season, which always seems to generate career years from players. After a slow start to the season, and a rough August, Beckett still managed to produce an ERA and WHIP in line with his career averages last year. If you take anything from the YMM fantasy baseball previews, make sure you target players in contract years on draft day.
10. Johan Santana (NYM)-If only Santana could pitch 5 days in a row, the Mets might have a chance to break the .500 mark this season. After offseason elbow surgery some may be afraid to select him in their draft, but Santana had the very same surgery 6 years ago, and followed it up with his first Cy Young Award. He may not be able to strikeout 200 batters a year anymore, but pitching without pain in his elbow will only help his performance.
11. Adam Wainwright (STL)- Before everyone jumps on the Wainwright bandwagon, take a look at some of his peripheral numbers last season. While he may have posted a 2.63 ERA and over 200 strikeouts, his 1.21 WHIP was nothing to write home about. For a pitcher who gives up almost a hit an inning, if he runs into some bad luck (or bad defense behind him), these numbers could seriously regress in 2010.
12. Jake Peavy (CHW)-It was only 2 years ago that Peavy was considered among the best pitchers in the game. Then his 2008 and 2009 seasons were derailed by injuries, ruining the seasons of fantasy owners who invested a high round pick in the White Sox pitcher. His move to the AL may hurt his numbers a bit, but Peavy still has the talent to be one of the best at his position if he can stay on the field.
13. Tommy Hanson (ATL)- The Braves top prospect got off to a rough start in his first game as a pro last season, but I’m sure there are plenty of rookies out there who would gladly take an adjustment period of only one game. Hanson steadily improved as the season went on, and he posted a 10.5 K/9 rate and 1.05 WHIP in the final 3 months of the season. I normally don’t trust gingers, but this kid is for real.
14. Josh Johnson (FLA)-Johnson got off to a great start last year, and after pitching 200 innings for the first time in his career the young Marlins ace posted career bests in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. Some experts will see the increased workload as a red flag, but Florida gave Johnson a 4 year contract extension this offseason, showing their confidence in his surgically repaired elbow. If the stingy Marlins are willing to pay for him, then you should be too on draft day.
15. Yovani Gallardo (MIL)-Gallardo made it through the entire season for the first time in his professional career in ‘09 and struck out over 200 batters. The good news is that all of his injuries thus far have been flukes and unrelated to his arm or shoulder. The bad news is that he continues to walk way too many batters, and he won’t reach elite status until he can improve his control.
16. Ubaldo Jimenez (COL)-Another pitcher who walks too many batters, Jimenez is similar to Gallardo, but doesn’t have quite the knee buckling stuff. He pitched over 200 innings last year on his way to winning 15 games, and should continue to put up numbers in the victories column playing for a strong Colorado team.
17. Chris Carpenter (STL)- Carpenter was the steal of the draft last year, and after an early season oblique injury, he posted the same numbers we’re used to seeing from the Cardinal ace. At the age of 35, it’s only going to get tougher for him to stay on the field, so you may be better off hedging your risk and taking a younger, more reliable starter. Even with all of the questions about his health, there are few ptichers in the league who can match Carpenter’s production when he’s on the field.
18. Cliff Lee (SEA)- Cliff Lee’s huge second half last season was a product of his move to the National League. Now that he’s back in the American League after his trade to the Mariners, his numbers should suffer a little, even in a pitcher’s park. He’s never been a big strikeout guy, and his peripherals are a little shaky, but he is entering his contract year and will have plenty of motivation to match last season’s numbers.
19. Ricky Nolasco (FLA)- Ricky Nolasco might have had the unluckiest season in the history of baseball last year. While his strikeout and walk rates remained fairly consistent with his breakout season in ‘08, his ERA ballooned to 5.06, mostly due to an inflated BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His luck improved as the season progressed, and by the time September rolled around he was back to his 2008 form. Expect a big rebound this year.
20. Clayton Kershaw (LAD)-Like many of the other young pitchers on this list, Kershaw struggles with a high walk rate, but when he’s not issuing free passes hes striking batters out. At the age of 21, and entering his 3rd season in the league, he is primed for a huge breakout this year. His strikeout potential makes him a sure fire top 20 option for the 2010 season.
