New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, January 24th 3:00 pm EST
Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Here we go Jets fans. Our first AFC Championship appearance since 1998 and I don’t think the story could’ve been written any better. The Jets (11-7) will face off with the perennial powerhouse, Indianapolis Colts (15-2), at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for a chance to play in Super Bowl XLIV. The two teams met back in week 16 in a controversial game in which the Jets ended the Colts run at an undefeated season. With home field advantage already secured, Colts head coach Jim Caldwell pulled Peyton Manning and the other starters early in the second half with the Colts leading 15-10. The Jets took full advantage, scoring 19 unanswered points to win the game 29-15 and end the Colts regular-season win streak at 23 games. While he never publicly questioned his coach, you could just tell by his body language on the sidelines that Peyton Manning wasn’t particularly happy with the decision and he’ll be motivated on Sunday to avenge the loss. On the other side, the Jets have had to listen to various critics talk about how the Colts handed them a victory and how they wouldn’t be in the playoffs if they hadn’t. Led by stellar defensive play and a ball control offense, the Jets have played motivated football since and have already proven that they belong and that their appearance in the AFC Championship is no fluke.
The Colts made it to the AFC Championship by knocking off the Ravens 20-3 in their divisional match up last Saturday. Manning went 30 of 44 for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns in the game, completing 12 passes for 73 yards to his top targets, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark. But it wasn’t just the offense that impressed, as the Colts defense held the Ravens to just 276 yards of total offense. The Jets earned their right to play for the AFC title by defeating the Bengals 24-14 in the opening round and moving past the Chargers last Sunday by a score of 17-14. Mark Sanchez has been able to limit his turnovers down the stretch (1 INT in his last 4 games) and manage the offense well. He understands the game plan behind the Jets “run first” philosophy, which only helps to alleviate the pressure off the young rookie. Fellow rookie, Shonn Greene, has seen an increased role with Thomas Jones slowed by a knee injury, having rushed for 420 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Jets last 4 games. The Colts ranked just 24th against the run during the regular season, but they managed to hold Ray Rice and a potent Ravens rushing attack to just 87 yards last week. The rest given to the Colts starters down the stretch, in addition to coming off a first round bye, really showed on the defensive side of the ball in that game. The Jets, on the other hand, have basically been playing for their lives for the last 4 weeks and have had to scrap their way to get to this game. The defense is a bit banged up, but they’ve been playing lights out and will need to be at their best if they have any chance of beating Indy. Darrelle Revis will be locked up with Reggie Wayne for most of the game, but look for Rex Ryan to disguise the coverages in an attempt to confuse Peyton Manning and the Colts receivers.
Bottom Line:
The Jets defense should have no problem making the Colts offense one dimensional. The Colts have eclipsed the 100 yard rushing mark only once in their last 11 games, including a pathetic 25 yards on 16 carries vs the Ravens last week. This will allow Rex Ryan to use an extra defender to help cover TE Dallas Clark instead of committing a safety to run support. The Jets will also blitz and blitz often. In the first two rounds, the Jets blitzed Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers 60% of the time. They may want to decrease that number somewhat on Sunday, as Peyton Manning has completed an astounding 68% of his passes against the blitz this season. Manning is too cerebral and the fact that he’s seen this Jets defense before is more of an advantage for him than any other player on the field. This is why Rex Ryan must disguise his coverages and schemes all game long and keep Manning guessing. RB’s Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will need to come up big in this game to control the clock and limit the opportunities for Sanchez to make mistakes, while also keeping the Colts offense off the field. The Colts defense is very fast and physical and they’re a big reason why they’ve made it to the AFC Championship game. DE’s Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are one of the best pass rushing tandems in the league. If the Colts can slow the Jets rushing attack and force Sanchez into third and long situations, Mathis and Freeney will make it a long day for the Jets offense. But if the Jets can move the ball on the ground as they’ve been able to do against good defenses all year, and the defense can limit the scoring opportunities for the Colts, they will be in position to win this game. Despite my Super Bowl prediction of Vikings vs Colts, I’m going with the underdog J-E-T-S in this one. Rex Ryan has them believing they can win this game and I believe too!
Prediction: Jets 17 Colts 16
