Super Bowl XLIV Preview

New Orleans Saints vs. Indianapolis Colts

Super Bowl XLIV   Venue: Sun Life Stadium

Sunday, February 7th  6:25 pm

Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints (15-3) will take on Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts (16-2) in Super Bowl XLIV in Miami this Sunday.  It’s only fitting that the teams with the best regular season records in their respective conferences made it to the big dance.  For Peyton Manning, it will be a matchup against his hometown team, once led at QB by his father Archie Manning, as the Colts try for their second Super Bowl title in four years.  For the Saints, it’s been a long time coming as it will mark their first Super Bowl appearance in their team’s 43 year history.  This game has the potential to be one of the highest scoring Super Bowls we’ve ever seen, as both teams offenses operate like well-oiled machines, led by two of the best quarterbacks in the game.

Manning threw for 377 yards and 3 touchdowns against the NFL’s top-ranked defense in the AFC championship game, leading  the Colts to a 30-17 win over the Jets.  However, the Colts defensive leader, Dwight Freeney, suffered a torn ligament in his ankle in the second half of that game when he tripped over the foot of Jets QB Mark Sanchez.  The injury could keep him out for the Super Bowl and even if he’s able to play, it will undoubtedly limit his effectiveness in the game.  Raheem Brock is expected to see an increased role and will need to step up in order to fill Freeney’s shoes.  The Colts defense takes a big blow with the injury to Freeney, but they’re still a fast group of players who should match up relatively well with the Saints offensive weapons.

Brees also threw for 3 touchdowns in the Saints 31-28 victory over Minnesota to capture the NFC title.  He finished with 197 yards passing with no turnovers, while managing to get sacked just once against the NFL’s best pass rushing defense.  As he has done all year long, Brees spread the ball out to an array of receivers, eight in all and three different receivers on his touchdown throws.  The Saints defense intercepted Brett Favre twice in the game and forced 4 fumbles, recovering 3 of them.  They’re a team that makes their opponents pay for turning the ball over and this game was no different.  Their defense will need to be just as opportunistic against Manning and the Colts in the Super Bowl if they have any chance of winning.

BOTTOM LINE:

The Saints absolutely MUST get pressure on Peyton Manning if they’re to have any chance of being crowned as Super Bowl champs.  Seeing as Manning has only been sacked 10 times all season, I don’t see the Saints having much success, if any, getting to him and disrupting the rhythm of the Colts potent offense.  The Saints forced 39 turnovers during the regular season and 7 this postseason.  They will find it much harder this week to create turnovers up against one of the smartest players to ever play the quarterback position in the history of the league.   The Colts won’t run the ball much, but they rarely if ever abandon the run completely as it helps to keep the opposing defense honest.  Joseph Addai does have a nose for the end zone and he could find it once or twice in this game.  Of the two teams, the Saints have the better ground game, led by a resurgent Reggie Bush and their 2009 rushing leader, Pierre Thomas (793 yards).  In an effort to help out their defense, the Saints may focus on running the ball more than usual to control the clock and keeping Manning off the field.   But that won’t be enough, so the Saints must not get away from what got them here.  Brees needs to get the ball downfield to his talented group of receivers (Marques Colston, Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson) and execute the screens and misdirection plays to his backs (Bush and Thomas).  While the Saints certainly have an edge over Indy when they’re on offense, the Colts defense is fast and physical and more than capable of matching up with the Saints talented group on offense.   As good as these two offenses are, defense will ultimately decide the winner of this game and the Colts have the better defense.

The Colts also hold a significant edge when it comes to experience.  It’s their 2nd Super Bowl appearance in 4 years and they’ve made it to the playoffs every year dating back to 2002.  You can’t underestimate the edge that experience gives a team, especially when that team is led by Peyton Manning.  Drew Brees along with many of his teammates such as Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and Jonathan Vilma have never experienced a Super Bowl.  While emotions will run high for these players to start the game, that intensity will fade as the game goes on and Manning will look to take advantage of that.  I like both these teams a lot, but with a high-powered offense, edge in experience and a more talented group on defense, I like the Colts to win Super Bowl XLIV.

PREDICTION:

Colts  34  Saints 20 (MVP: P.Manning)

**YMM Staff Predictions**

-KRM:  Colts 33  Saints 27 (MVP: P.Manning)

-Dubbs:  Saints 38  Colts 35 (MVP: R.Bush)

-Shamus O’Cabbage:  Colts 34  Saints 24 (MVP: K.Kardashian/Reggie Bush)

-Bobby O:  Saints 38 Colts 31 (MVP: D.Brees)

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Jsunfella, February 5th 2010 | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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NFL Playoffs: AFC Championship Preview

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, January 24th 3:00 pm EST

Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)

Here we go Jets fans.  Our first AFC Championship appearance since 1998 and I don’t think the story could’ve been written any better.  The Jets (11-7) will face off with the perennial powerhouse, Indianapolis Colts (15-2), at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday for a chance to play in Super Bowl XLIV.  The two teams met back in week 16 in a controversial game in which the Jets ended the Colts run at an undefeated season.  With home field advantage already secured, Colts head coach Jim Caldwell pulled Peyton Manning and the other starters early in the second half with the Colts leading 15-10.  The Jets took full advantage, scoring 19 unanswered points to win the game 29-15 and end the Colts regular-season win streak at 23 games.  While he never publicly questioned his coach, you could just tell by his body language on the sidelines that Peyton Manning wasn’t particularly happy with the decision and he’ll be motivated on Sunday to avenge the loss.  On the other side, the Jets have had to listen to various critics talk about how the Colts handed them a victory and how they wouldn’t be in the playoffs if they hadn’t.  Led by stellar defensive play and a ball control offense, the Jets have played motivated football since and have already proven that they belong and that their appearance in the AFC Championship is no fluke.

The Colts made it to the AFC Championship by knocking off the Ravens 20-3 in their divisional match up last Saturday.  Manning went 30 of 44 for 246 yards and 2 touchdowns in the game, completing 12 passes for 73 yards to his top targets, WR Reggie Wayne and TE Dallas Clark.  But it wasn’t just the offense that impressed, as the Colts defense held the Ravens to just 276 yards of total offense.  The Jets earned their right to play for the AFC title by defeating the Bengals 24-14 in the opening round and moving past the Chargers last Sunday by a score of 17-14.  Mark Sanchez has been able to limit his turnovers down the stretch (1 INT in his last 4 games) and manage the offense well.  He understands the game plan behind the Jets “run first” philosophy, which only helps to alleviate the pressure off the young rookie.  Fellow rookie, Shonn Greene, has seen an increased role with Thomas Jones slowed by a knee injury, having rushed for 420 yards and 2 touchdowns in the Jets last 4 games.  The Colts ranked just 24th against the run during the regular season, but they managed to hold Ray Rice and a potent Ravens rushing attack to just 87 yards last week.  The rest given to the Colts starters down the stretch, in addition to coming off a first round bye, really showed on the defensive side of the ball in that game.  The Jets, on the other hand, have basically been playing for their lives for the last 4 weeks and have had to scrap their way to get to this game.  The defense is a bit banged up, but they’ve been playing lights out and will need to be at their best if they have any chance of beating Indy.  Darrelle Revis will be locked up with Reggie Wayne for most of the game, but look for Rex Ryan to disguise the coverages in an attempt to confuse Peyton Manning and the Colts receivers.

Bottom Line:

The Jets defense should have no problem making the Colts offense one dimensional.  The Colts have eclipsed the 100 yard rushing mark only once in their last 11 games, including a pathetic 25 yards on 16 carries vs the Ravens last week.  This will allow Rex Ryan to use an extra defender to help cover TE Dallas Clark instead of committing a safety to run support.  The Jets will also blitz and blitz often.  In the first two rounds, the Jets blitzed Carson Palmer and Phillip Rivers 60% of the time.  They may want to decrease that number somewhat on Sunday, as Peyton Manning has completed an astounding 68% of his passes against the blitz this season.  Manning is too cerebral and the fact that he’s seen this Jets defense before is more of an advantage for him than any other player on the field.  This is why Rex Ryan must disguise his coverages and schemes all game long and keep Manning guessing.  RB’s Shonn Greene and Thomas Jones will need to come up big in this game to control the clock and limit the opportunities for Sanchez to make mistakes, while also keeping the Colts offense off the field.  The Colts defense is very fast and physical and they’re a big reason why they’ve made it to the AFC Championship game.  DE’s Robert Mathis and Dwight Freeney are one of the best pass rushing tandems in the league.  If the Colts can slow the Jets rushing attack and force Sanchez into third and long situations, Mathis and Freeney will make it a long day for the Jets offense.  But if the Jets can move the ball on the ground as they’ve been able to do against good defenses all year, and the defense can limit the scoring opportunities for the Colts, they will be in position to win this game.  Despite my Super Bowl prediction of Vikings vs Colts, I’m going with the underdog J-E-T-S in this one.  Rex Ryan has them believing they can win this game and I believe too!

Prediction:  Jets  17  Colts 16

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Jsunfella, January 22nd 2010 | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Preview

Eight teams remain on the Road to Super Bowl XLIV in Miami.

 

Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints     

Saturday- January 16th 4:30 PM     

The Louisiana Superdome      

The Cardinals wound up on the winning side of the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history when they knocked off the Packers last Sunday by a score of 51-45.  What’s scary is that this weekend’s game vs. the Saints could wind up being just as high scoring, as both teams post two of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL.  The Saints struggled down the stretch of the regular season on both sides of the ball, but the porous defense exhibited by the Cardinals in their wild card game has got to have Drew Brees and the Saints offense salivating at their mouths.  If Pierre Thomas and the running game can get going, the Saints could run away with this one.  But you can’t count out the Cardinals, who are led by one of the most productive post season QB’s ever in Kurt Warner.  The Cardinals will also have WR Anquan Boldin back for this game, giving Warner yet another weapon at his disposal in the passing game to go along with Larry Fitzgerald and Steve Breaston.  This game will likely come down to which defense can make the bigger plays and slow down the opposing team’s offense.  It’s a tough one to call, but I’ve got a feeling the Cardinals are going to get the job done.     

Prediction:  Cardinals 34 Saints  30     

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts     

Saturday- January 16th 8:15 PM     

Lucas Oil Stadium     

The Colts haven’t played a meaningful football game since locking up the #1 seed in the AFC by defeating Jacksonville back in week 15.  There has been a lot of controversy surrounding head coach Jim Caldwell’s decision to rest his starters down the stretch instead of going for an undefeated season, and history has shown that the Colts haven’t done well in the past under similar circumstances.  I can see Peyton Manning and the Colts offense struggling to find a rhythm early on, but the defense should be well rested and prepared for the Ravens offense.  The Ravens boast a very physical defense and will try to do everything in their power to get to Manning and force him to rush his throws.  They will also look to run the ball with Ray Rice all game long to burn the clock and keep the Colts offense off the field.  If they can do these things with success, they will have a good chance of knocking off the Colts.  But I’ve got Indianapolis winning it all, so rest or no rest, I think they play like the team we’ve seen for most of the 2009 season in this one.     

Prediction:  Colts  27  Ravens 17     

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings     

Sunday- January 17th 1:00 PM     

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome     

This game pits two of the most balanced teams in football against each other and has the potential to be the best game of the weekend.  Dallas is rolling, having won 4 straight games, including two straight weeks of domination against a very good Philadelphia Eagles team.  The Vikings sputtered somewhat down the stretch, but ended the season on a high note with a lopsided victory over the New York Giants.  The bye week will surely help the Vikings, especially Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson who will be well rested for this matchup.  As good as the Cowboys defense has played in recent weeks, it’s not going to be an easy task for them to slow down one of the best and most balanced offensive attacks in the league.  Dallas will also struggle to run the ball against a stout Vikings run defense, so Tony Romo will once again need to be on top of his game if the Cowboys have any chance of winning.  The Vikings secondary could struggle to cover Miles Austin and Jason Witten in the passing game, but ultimately I expect them to get the job done and move onto the NFC Championship game.     

Prediction:  Vikings 28 Cowboys 24     

New York Jets @ San Diego Chargers     

Sunday- January 17th 4:40 PM     

Qualcomm Stadium     

When a team can play defense and run the ball as the Jets have done all year long, they have the ability to beat anyone they’re up against.  With that said, the Chargers have arguably been the best team in the NFL this season and it will be a tough task for the Jets to beat them in Qualcomm Stadium, where the Chargers have only lost 2 games this season.  Phillip Rivers will not shy away from throwing at Darrelle Revis.  He will take his shots downfield to Vincent Jackson throughout the game, which will open up the middle for TE Antonio Gates to find room in the Jets secondary.  I’m not sure that the Jets will have an answer for Gates, but they will need to limit his touches if they’re to have any chance of winning this game.  The Jets linebackers will also need to be on their heels and watch out for screen passes to LaDainian Tomlinson and the quicker and more dangerous, Darren Sproles.  For the Jets offense, it will be nothing new.  They’ll look to run the ball as much as possible against a defense that has struggled against the run for much of the season.  If they can have success in the running game and QB Mark Sanchez can get into the flow early and limit his turnovers, the Jets will remain in this game throughout.  For the critics out there who still believe that the Jets “backed into the playoffs,” this game will prove them wrong.  I expect a hard fought battle between a great QB on one side, and a great defense on the other.  This game will be decided in the final minutes of the 4th quarter.  If the Jets can stick to their game plan and maybe catch a few breaks, they are capable of knocking off the Chargers and advancing to the AFC Championship.  But the realist in me has got to give the edge to San Diego in this one.     

Prediction:  Chargers  23  Jets 20    

      

**YMM Staff’s Super Bowl XLIV Predictions:    

-Jsunfella:  Colts vs. Vikings    

-KRM:  Colts vs. Saints    

-Dubbs:  Chargers vs. Vikings    

-Bobby O:  Chargers vs. Packers    

-Magnum Stache:  Chargers vs. Packers

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Jsunfella, January 15th 2010 | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
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