Now that 2010 is here, the fantasy baseball season is right around the corner. Your Mother’s Mustache will be previewing each position in preparation for your draft day. All rankings are based on a points system which values overall player productivity, or OPS (On-base Plus Slugging). Because if you’re still playing in a roto league, you probably also have a “Members Only” jacket hanging in your closet.
1. Ryan Braun (MIL)- While Braun’s slugging percentage dropped for the 3rd straight year, he set career highs in on base percentage, RBIs, runs, hits and stolen bases in 2009, becoming a more well rounded player. He is the only outfielder in the draft this year worthy of a first round selection.
2. Matt Holliday (STL)-After a slow start to the year in Oakland, Holliday took off after his trade to the Cardinals and put up a ridiculous 1.023 OPS while driving in 55 runs. For those of you who doubt he can repeat that number again this year, ask yourselves this: who would you rather pitch to? Pujols or Holliday? The answer to that question all but guarantees Holliday will get plenty of chances with ducks on the pond again this season.
3. Matt Kemp (LAD)- Matt Kemp improved his numbers for a third straight year, despite Joe Torre batting him 8th for most of the season. The Dodgers manager finally came to his senses in September, and Kemp got some more chances batting in the middle of the lineup at the end of the season. At the age of 25, there’s still room for improvement, and a 30/30 season in 2010 is all but a foregone conclusion.
4. Nick Markakis (BAL)-A lot of owners will be down on Markakis after his numbers regressed last year, but don’t be fooled; he is still one of the elite options at the position. With the return of a healthy Adam Jones, and Matt Wieters providing protection batting behind him, Markakis should easily rebound this year. He’ll make a great value pick in the 4th or 5th round of your draft.
5. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS)-Ellsbury is trending in the right direction, and he became the first player to hit .300 and steal 70 bags in the same season since Kenny Lofton accomplished the feat back in ‘96. His place atop the Red Sox potent lineup means the run totals have only one place to go from here, making him a sure fire top 5 option at the position.
6. Carl Crawford (TB)-We here at YMM like players in contract years. Take a look at some of the players who had career years during their walk season in 2009: Jason Bay, Chone Figgins, Johnny Damon, and Marco Scutaro. Crawford is clearly more talented than every player on this list, so expect a monster year from the Rays outfielder entering free agency.
7. Justin Upton (ARI)-When I turned 21, I spent the year getting hammered every night and running through hood rats in upstate New York. When Justin Upton turned 21 last season, he spent the year hitting bombs, stealing bases and running through super models. The moral of the story: take Upton with your second or third round pick, and wait on Dubbs until the last round of your draft.
8. Grady Sizemore (CLE)-Sizemore’s average plummeted for the third straight year in ‘09, although that may be due to an elbow injury that ultimately forced him to have surgery during the offseason. Sizemore is still only 27, so assuming he’s healthy this season, he could very well perform like a top 5 outfielder this year at a 3rd or 4th round price.
9. Ichiro Suzuki (SEA)-Ichiro just keeps on trucking year after year. He led the majors with 225 hits last season at the age of 35. While injuries may start to become an issue when talking about a player entering his late 30’s, Ichiro’s production is undeniable when he is on the field. Most will draft him as a 2nd outfielder, but he has the ability to produce like a number 1.
10. Curtis Granderson (NYY)-It’s rare that YMM will rank a player who can’t hit lefties this high on any list, but Granderson’s move to the Bronx all but ensures he will set career highs across the board playing half of his games in the hitter’s haven that is Yankee Stadium. A 40-100-100-20 season is not out of the question for the Yankees new center fielder.
11. Shane Victorino (PHI)-The “Flyin’ Hawaiian” led the Phillies in hits and gay nicknames in 2009. No one in the majors benefits more from their position than Victorino, and he will continue to produce top 10 stats as long as he bats leadoff in Philadelphia’s potent lineup.
12. Adam Lind (TOR)-A lot of people are high on Lind this year, but don’t overpay for the young slugger on draft day. He had a huge break through last season, but it’s rare that impatient hitters with average power increase their on base percentage by 60 points and hit 35 homeruns. At the age of 26, Lind may just be a late bloomer, but I’d like to see him repeat last season’s performance before I use an early round pick on him.
13. Jason Bay (NYM)- Bay cashed in on his career year in ‘09 with a 66 million dollar contract from the Mets. The signing means he’ll be stuck playing half of his games at Citi Field, where home run hitters go to die. He may still hit 25 homers and drive in 100 runs, but don’t draft him expecting a repeat of last year’s stats.
14. Andrew McCutchen (PIT)-Pittsburgh fans almost rioted when the team traded away Nate McLouth last year to make room in the lineup for their top prospect, but Neal Huntington clearly knew what he was doing. McCutchen burst onto the scene, and hit .286 with 12 homeruns and 22 stolen bases in a little more than half a season. His skill set is similar to that of Jose Reyes, and if he becomes even half the player the Mets shortstop is offensively, he’ll be a top fantasy option for many years to come.
15. Carlos Lee (HOU)-Lee failed to slug at least .500 last season for the first time since 2005. The Astros slugger should still be a good source of RBIs batting cleanup in Houston, but at the age of 33, the days of 35 homeruns are probably over. Scoring only 65 runs for the second straight season means he is no more than a borderline number 2 outfielder on most fantasy squads.
16. Bobby Abreu (LAA)-Abreu became the Angels best hitter last season after signing a 1 year, 5 million dollar deal with the club. One of the most consistent bats in fantasy, he drove in over 100 runs for the 7th consecutive year, and actually saw a spike in his stolen base numbers. The departure of L.A.’s leadoff and clean up hitters won’t help his cause, but Abreu should still prove to be a solid outfielder as long as he can remain healthy at the age of 36.
17. Shin-Soo Choo (CLE)-Choo followed up his 2008 late season breakthrough with an equally impressive campaign in 2009. With a .400 on base percentage and .300 batting average Choo has become a top producer in fantasy. The only red flag is his abnormally high .370 BABIP (batting average on balls in play). The league average is around .300, which means Choo has outstanding bat control or he has gotten somewhat lucky. The 150 strikeouts last year point to the latter.
18. Carlos Beltran (NYM)-Beltran has fallen out of the top 10 fantasy outfielders for the first time in almost a decade. Chronic knee problems forced him to have surgery last month, and the best case scenario is that he won’t return to the playing field until May. Even when Beltran does return, he’ll be playing the majority of his games at Citi Field, where he produced a measly .779 OPS last season. A rebound season isn’t out of the question, but it’s not likely either.
19. Josh Hamilton (TEX)- It’s tough to be upset about Hamilton’s 2009 injury plagued season. All of the reasons I love the guy (the broads, booze and drugs) are the very same reasons his body broke down last year. He’s clearly a top 5 fantasy option if we’re basing it on talent alone, but the fact that he’ll likely get hurt or relapse during the season means you can’t count on him for more than 100 games. Don’t worry Josh, you’ll always have a place on my team.
20. Carlos Quentin (CHW)-Carlos Quentin is the outfield’s version of Erik Bedard. He has the talent to dominate on any given night, but he’ll most likely spend the majority of the season on the DL with a bullshit injury. In ‘08 he fractured his wrist trying to break a bat. In 2009 he hurt his achilles running around the bases. I know softball players who are tougher than this pussy. Draft him at your own risk.
21. Andre Ethier (LAD)-By most accounts, Andre Ethier had a huge year last season. He eclipsed 30 homers and 100 RBIs for the first time in his career. He also batted a pathetic .194 against lefties, and seriously struggled away from Dodger Stadium, hitting .238 and slugging .389 on the road. Fantasy baseball is all about consistency, and Ethier will need to improve both numbers before this owner will consider him an elite option.
22. Adam Jones (BAL)- When last year began, it looked like Jones was well on his way to a breakthrough season. He batted .300 and hit 12 homers through the first half, but limped to the finish line after spraining his ankle in the outfield. He is still only 24 years old, so he could easily improve upon last year’s numbers and put up a 20/20 season batting atop the Orioles talented young lineup.
23. Denard Span (MIN)-There’s no love for Denard Span. He doesn’t hit homers. He doesn’t drive in runs. He doesn’t even steal too many bases. But he’s a .300 hitter and consistently gets on base in front of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, making him a likely candidate to score 100 runs. The Twins move to a grass field may hurt his value, as he relies on his speed to make plays on the base paths, but he is still an excellent value pick in the mid to late rounds of your draft.
24. Jayson Werth (PHI)-Another player who’s career has been derailed by injuries, Jayson Werth made 500 plate appearances last season for the first time in his major league career. The results: 36 homeruns and 20 stolen bases. At the age of 30, it’s only going to get tougher for him to stay healthy, so don’t overpay for this injury risk on draft day. Let someone else use a mid round pick on a player who will be lucky to see 400 at bats this year.
25. Adam Dunn (WAS)- I will say this for Adam Dunn: he is consistent. He’s hit 40 homers and driven in 100 runs almost every year for the past 6 seasons. But he’s also been a .250 hitter during that time, which seriously hurts his value in a points based league that rewards players with a high OPS. The Nationals slugger will make a satisfactory 3rd outfielder on any fantasy squad, but take him any earlier than the 8th or 9th round, and your season just might be Dunn. (“Your season is Dunn!” is a trademark of Willy Bange Industries and may not be used without express written consent.)
