Your Mother's Mustache

Rex Ryan will have his team motivated and prepared to win on Sunday.

Buffalo Bills (1-4) @ New York Jets (3-2)

MATCHUP BREAKDOWN:

JETS RUNNING GAME vs. BILLS D

Despite finding the end zone 3 times, Thomas Jones has just 90 yards on 26 carries in the Jets’ last two games.  He’s averaging just 3.7 yards per carry this season and seems to lack the burst he showed last season when he led the AFC in rushing.  He does split downs with Leon Washington, which limits the amount of carries he gets, but Jones needs to step up and it should all start this week at home vs. the Bills.  Buffalo ranks 29^th in the NFL allowing 154.6 rushing yards per game.  It’s also been 3 consecutive weeks in which they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards to an opposing running back (Pierre Thomas- 126, Ronnie Brown-115, Jamal Lewis-117).  Jones could make it four consecutive games, as the Jets will look to lean on their running game in this one.  We should also see some reps from rookie RB Shonn Greene, who the Jets will look to integrate more and more as the season goes on

EDGE:  JETS RUNNING GAME

JETS PASSING GAME vs. BILLS D

In the Jets 3 wins, Mark Sanchez has 5 touchdowns (4 passing TDs) and 2 interceptions, with an average of 202 passing yards per game.  In their 2 losses, he’s thrown for 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions, averaging just 155 passing yards per game.  As good as the Jets defense is and potentially can be, they may only go as far as their rookie quarterback will take them this season.  I chalk it up as two games worth of growing pains for Sanchez and expect him to be much better Sunday vs. the Bills. Buffalo does have the 6^th ranked pass defense in the NFL, but that number is a bit misleading considering teams have been predominantly running the ball against them.  With Jerricho Cotchery likely to miss the game for the Jets with a hamstring injury, look for Sanchez to go to Braylon Edwards, much like he did last week vs. Miami.  Dustin Keller needs to be more involved in the offense, which will require a better effort than he’s shown in the last few games.

EDGE:  EVEN

BILLS RUNNING GAME vs. JETS D

Marshawn Lynch has rushed for 73 yards on 25 carries in his first 2 games since coming off a 4 game suspension.  It appears the Bills have re-established Lynch as the #1 RB ahead of Fred Jackson, but they’ll continue to use Jackson to compliment Lynch, specifically on passing downs.  The Jets defense was dominated by the Miami Dolphins and their “Wildcat” offense last Monday night.  I mentioned in last week’s preview how the key matchup in that game would be the Jets run defense vs. Miami’s running game and that turned out to be the case as the Jets let the Dolphins “wildcat” their way down the field in the 2 minute drill, losing in the final seconds on a Ronnie Brown 2 yard run.  The performance plummeted the Jets to 19^th overall in run defense, but they’re a physical unit with the personnel and system capable of shooting their way back up the rankings. The Jets defenders are going to be playing angry in this game, like they’ve got something to prove, and the Bills running backs will feel the effect.

EDGE:  JETS RUN DEFENSE

BILLS PASSING GAME vs. JETS D

Trent Edwards has not played at a high level this season.  In last week’s loss to the Browns, Edwards was 16 of 31 for 152 yards and an interception.  He’s completed only 58.1 % of his passes and has yet to throw for 1000 yards on the season through 5 games, all of this despite having two solid targets in WR’s Terrell Owens and Lee Evans.  Owens has looked like a shell of his former self this season and I’m convinced he will never be a good fit in Buffalo (then again, where has he been a good fit?).  The Jets pass defense ranks 9^th in the NFL and should have no problem shutting down Trent Edwards and the Bills passing attack.  And again, with the way they played last week at Miami, you have to expect the Jets will be playing with a chip on their shoulder and I expect them to return to the dominant form they showed in the first 4 games of the season.

EDGE:  JETS PASS DEFENSE

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Jets are ranked 5^th in the NFL with an average of 12.7 yards per punt return and 12^th in the league with 23.5 yards per kick return.  In comparison, the Bills average 7.4 yards per punt return, good for 15^th in the league, and 22.1 yards per kick return which ranks 18^th overall.  Jay Feely has kicked 22 consecutive field goals to tie the Jets franchise record set by Pat Leahy in the 1985 season.  He is 8 for 8 in 2009, while his counterpart Rian Lindell falls just short at 7 for 8.  Both teams are among the bottom of the league in average per punt (Jets- 42.0/ Bills 42.2).

EDGE:  JETS

COACHING:  Rex Ryan vs. Dick Jauron

After the loss to Miami, Rex Ryan lashed out at both his defensive coaches and players.  The blitz packages that worked against Matt Schaub in week 1 and Tom Brady in week 2 haven’t been working, and in a system that is predicated on getting pressure on the quarterback, it’s something that is not acceptable and that’s what Ryan let them know.  Ryan will have the defense ready and motivated this week, and I expect a huge turn-around performance.  Dick Jauron is reportedly on the hot seat after coaching Buffalo to a 1-4 start.  As much talent as they lack, particularly on the offensive line, you have to question if Jauron made the right decision in firing his offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert, just days before the season.  Jauron replaced him with an inexperienced Alex Van Pelt and it’s shown as the Bills look lost trying to operate out of the no-huddle offense that Van Pelt inherited from Schonert.  If things don’t turn around soon, we could see a new regime in Buffalo.

EDGE:  JETS

BOTTOM LINE:

The Jets are going to be more than ready to play this Sunday coming off a disappointing loss to Miami.  They will be motivated to prove to the league and the critics that the team we saw in the first 3 weeks is who they are.  I don’t expect them to have too much trouble with the Bills, but of course you never know what could happen when two AFC East rivals get together, no matter how much of a mismatch it appears to be on paper.  My prediction:

Jets  23  Bills  10

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